Thursday, May 15, 2008

Plug-in Hybrids - the car of tomorrow - for real!

I first heard of the "plug-in hybrid" car about 8 months ago and I have to admit it is a really great idea. A "plug-in hybrid" is a car that has two power systems, one that is completely electric and charged both by regenerative breaking and a standard 110v outlet at home and the other which is a standard gas-electric hybrid engine. Essentially one could charge their car overnight and drive about 40-100 miles on a single charge with zero emissions. If driving requires distances beyond 40-100 miles, the gas-electric hybrid system kicks in and you can drive as long as you have gasoline (e.g., Toyota Prius, Honda Insight etc.). In my opinion this will be the car everyone will want buy by 2010. I will buy one...

Benefits:
1. Incredible gas mileage. Nearly all drivers travel less that 40 miles per day and with the "plug-in hybrid" this could be done with zero emissions with gas mileage approaching infinity.

2. The electric system has fewer moving parts = less wear and tear, easier to maintain and lasts longer.

3. Even if you have to use the car as a traditional hybrid, you will still get outstanding gas mileage (30-70 mpg).

4. They will dramatically reduce our country's need for imported foreign oil. Even though transportation accounts for about 20-30% of our countries use of foreign oil, there will be a lessened dependence on oil from the "tumultuous" regions of our world. Also, people will no longer complain about $125/barrel and $4/gallon prices. This also makes 40 or so years of easily attainable oil last longer (the 40-year estimate made using current know oil supply and current consumption rates - verified by BP's Chief Scientist.)

Drawbacks:
1. There will be a switch on where the energy comes from to move these cars from combustible gasoline (an oil byproduct) to electricity generated mainly from coal/oil burning power plants. Seeing that only a small fraction of our country's power generation comes from nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind and other renewable resources, if there is a major shift to plug-in hybrids or even electric cars, the demand for this power will go up. Seeing that coal is our most abundant fossil fuel (and Illinois has a ridiculous amount of it), we will certainly burn MUCH more of it. THE BAD PART: coal releases twice as much carbon as gasoline!! Ultimately, switching to cars powered by electricity MAY increase the global amounts of CO2, by switching which fossil fuel we burn to get power. If you are unfamiliar with the effects of increased CO2 in our atmosphere, please see my presentation on global climate change.

2. What will this mean for the government mandate on ethanol in the current gas supply? Ethanol has already fallen out of the lime light as an alternative to gasoline simply because we can not produce enough of it to make a dent in our needs. It was never a good idea in my opinion... It has made several farmers very rich, but I would sell my ethanol stocks (if I had them...) because prices are sure to fall. Also, if any of you have been to the grocery store lately you will see the effects of the shift in selling of our grains to ethanol vs. food production (although remember that only a small fraction of the corn you see in the fields is for human consumption).

3. How many years will it take for these cars to become the majority on the roads? Will something more dramatic happen before then?

4. How expensive will it be to maintain the battery system?

On a side note, Nissan will be releasing an electric car into the U.S. and Japanese domestic markets in 2010. Below is a pic of the car and here is a link to the article.

Adaptation brings change, proactive measures are futile...

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