2008 Hurricane Season: NOAA New Release

Just today (May 22, 2008) NOAA released its 2008 hurricane season forecast in this news article. The article states that there is a 90% chance of a normal season to above normal season. As a reminder, normal is around 10 named storms (these are tropical cyclones that reach "Tropical Storm" strength (sustained 39 mph winds)) with 6 of those becoming hurricanes (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) and 2 of those becoming major hurricanes (Cat 3 or greater on the Saffir Simpson scale).

The outlook for 2008 suggests there could be 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes. The article stresses that this is simply a prediction. Also, this prediction does not tell us how many tropical cyclones will hit U.S. shores (that is impossible to know).



Just for comparison sake, I checked out what Bill Gray at CSU is calling for this hurricane season. His April 2008 forecast suggests 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. He also suggests that the entire U.S. coastline has an above average risk for being struck compared the the 20th century mean.

Why will the season be so active?
1. We are in the middle of the peak in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (1, 2), which simply means we are in a period where sea surface temperatures and wind speeds are favorable for tropical cyclone development.

2. The moderately strong La Nina what brought cooler weather this winter to the easter half of the US, soaking rains to the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and a great snow season to the west will also help hurricanes out over the Atlantic this fall. Research has shown that strong vertical wind shear is typically associated El Nino conditions. Strong vertical wind shear is bad for hurricane development because it 1. spreads out the latent heating occurring due to cloud production which needs to be concentrated over for hurricane development and 2. upsets the large-scale vortex of the hurricane. La Nina conditions often produce much weaker vertical wind shear = good for hurricane development.

2008 Tornado Season - well above average

I took a look this morning at the 2008 preliminary tornado reports and the really active season we started off with has continued. Of course the Feb. 5-6 "Super Tuesday" outbreak is the main highlight of the season but I am impressed that the pattern has stayed so active. Below is a graph that has the number of reported tornadoes (y-axis) plotted against date (x-axis). Compare this year to recent years and a 10-year average. This data is provided by the SPC.


So far Missouri leads with 112 reports of tornadoes, with Mississippi following with 109 and Arkansas with 89. Just as a side note, Mississippi isn't considered to be in the traditional tornado alley, yet it leads historically in the number of deaths per state.

Finally, the five most active days, as far as severe weather reports are concerned are as follows (source: SPC):

1	02/05/08	527
2	05/10/08	467
3	01/07/08	333
4	03/04/08	331
5	01/29/08	309

Notice how four of these dates are actually before or during the very early part of "thunderstorm season".

Einstein Letter on God ($404,000)

I came across an interesting article in the NYTimes last week. Einstein wrote a letter to philosopher Eric Gutkind in 1954 briefly describing his religious viewpoints primarily regarding Judaism. The letter reportedly sold for $404,000 to an unidentified buyer.

Although the article suggests Einstein "lost his religion at the age of 12" and that Einstein is clearly "agnostic" and not a proponent of intelligent design, he clearly battled with the idea. Other famous quotes of his make it seem that he recognizes an ultimate designer. For example:

"... We are in the position of a little child entering a huge library filled with books in many different languages. The child knows someone must have written those books. It does not know how. The child dimly suspects a mysterious order in the arrangement of the books but doesn't know what it is. That, it seems to me, is the attitude of even the most intelligent human being toward God."

A copy of the letter is seen in the image below and the text can be found here.


In the end, he is dead and he has all of his questions answered. I hope he found the "simple equation" that unifies it all. (not to be read sarcastically).

Plug-in Hybrids - the car of tomorrow - for real!

I first heard of the "plug-in hybrid" car about 8 months ago and I have to admit it is a really great idea. A "plug-in hybrid" is a car that has two power systems, one that is completely electric and charged both by regenerative breaking and a standard 110v outlet at home and the other which is a standard gas-electric hybrid engine. Essentially one could charge their car overnight and drive about 40-100 miles on a single charge with zero emissions. If driving requires distances beyond 40-100 miles, the gas-electric hybrid system kicks in and you can drive as long as you have gasoline (e.g., Toyota Prius, Honda Insight etc.). In my opinion this will be the car everyone will want buy by 2010. I will buy one...

Benefits:
1. Incredible gas mileage. Nearly all drivers travel less that 40 miles per day and with the "plug-in hybrid" this could be done with zero emissions with gas mileage approaching infinity.

2. The electric system has fewer moving parts = less wear and tear, easier to maintain and lasts longer.

3. Even if you have to use the car as a traditional hybrid, you will still get outstanding gas mileage (30-70 mpg).

4. They will dramatically reduce our country's need for imported foreign oil. Even though transportation accounts for about 20-30% of our countries use of foreign oil, there will be a lessened dependence on oil from the "tumultuous" regions of our world. Also, people will no longer complain about $125/barrel and $4/gallon prices. This also makes 40 or so years of easily attainable oil last longer (the 40-year estimate made using current know oil supply and current consumption rates - verified by BP's Chief Scientist.)

Drawbacks:
1. There will be a switch on where the energy comes from to move these cars from combustible gasoline (an oil byproduct) to electricity generated mainly from coal/oil burning power plants. Seeing that only a small fraction of our country's power generation comes from nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind and other renewable resources, if there is a major shift to plug-in hybrids or even electric cars, the demand for this power will go up. Seeing that coal is our most abundant fossil fuel (and Illinois has a ridiculous amount of it), we will certainly burn MUCH more of it. THE BAD PART: coal releases twice as much carbon as gasoline!! Ultimately, switching to cars powered by electricity MAY increase the global amounts of CO₂, by switching which fossil fuel we burn to get power. If you are unfamiliar with the effects of increased CO₂ in our atmosphere, please see my presentation on global climate change.

2. What will this mean for the government mandate on ethanol in the current gas supply? Ethanol has already fallen out of the lime light as an alternative to gasoline simply because we can not produce enough of it to make a dent in our needs. It was never a good idea in my opinion... It has made several farmers very rich, but I would sell my ethanol stocks (if I had them...) because prices are sure to fall. Also, if any of you have been to the grocery store lately you will see the effects of the shift in selling of our grains to ethanol vs. food production (although remember that only a small fraction of the corn you see in the fields is for human consumption).

3. How many years will it take for these cars to become the majority on the roads? Will something more dramatic happen before then?

4. How expensive will it be to maintain the battery system?

On a side note, Nissan will be releasing an electric car into the U.S. and Japanese domestic markets in 2010. Below is a pic of the car and here is a link to the article.

Adaptation brings change, proactive measures are futile...

"I'm So Happy" - Miguel Salazar Franco

Miguel has requested that I remove this post.

Cyclone Nargis: Devistation in Myanmar

Nargis, a female Indian name, was an intense Cyclone (hurricane) that tracked up the Bay of Bengal Monday and Tuesday of this week. It turned east and slammed into Myanmar (formerly Burma) packing a 12-foot storm surge and 130 mph winds making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

As a side note - the Bay of Bengal played host to the deadliest tropical cyclone in recent history, the Bhola Cyclone of 1970 (Wikipedia has a great summary of this cyclone). Over 500,000 lost their lives in Bangladesh.

As of right now the death toll has climbed to 22,000. This will be the largest hurricane fatality count since Mitch (1) in 1998, which hit Honduras killing some 9000. (To this date, 9000 are still missing in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala.) The U.S. wants to send help, but the ruling government of Myanmar won't allow it right now. Read more in this article from the Telegraph (UK). Watch this NYTimes video. Check out this Timesonline article.

Below are two images. First is a MODIS image of the Cyclone over the Bay of Bengal. The second is the track of the storm.

Iron Man

I decided not to chase on Friday as the best storms were setting up further south than I wanted to drive in one day. Check out the storm reports, over 60 reported tornadoes.

I attended an awards banquet on Saturday, which was very nice. I was awarded the "Outstanding Teacher of Freshman Award" for 2008. It was funny that the Vice Chancellor, who was the main speaker for the event, was in Alaina and I's dance classes. Since we were in a ballroom for the ceremony, I asked the Chancelor to dance, which she wisely declined...

I saw Iron Man yesterday. Great movie. Good casting, great story - a rare combination as of late when it comes to comic book movies. Check out what IMDB has to say about it.

I found this awesome movie that shows flight patterns across the US every day. Amazing how many flights there are.

Finally I get to chase...

Although I am going to have until wait later today to make the final decision, after my last exam I plan on heading down toward Effingham, IL . I'll wait there so I can take 70 E-W or 57 N-S depending on where the best surface moisture is and where the winds best are at the surface. (Although at 6:30AM, when I am making this decision, I am bound to change my location.)I CANT WAIT!!! Be sure to check in on the SPC and watch the radar. Below is the generic NWS graphic for today.